Scoreboard / ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. ASO

Issue No. 12 pick · September 11, 2026 · Updated October 16, 2026

Consumer Discretionary

Setup Snapshot

The Setup in One Card

How ASO moved and the catalyst behind the move, from its Issue No. 12 write-up. It is not on the current Scoreboard, so it carries no Friday Five Score this week.

Issue No. 12

Original Pick

Week of September 3 to September 10, 2026 Return

ASO+24.12%

Sector Trend

Neutralup 1.5 percent

Covered In

Issue No. 12 · September 11, 2026

Catalyst

Guidance Raise

Raised full year adjusted earnings guidance on 440 basis points of gross margin expansion while comparable sales fell

Return measured from the Thursday, September 3 close to the Thursday, September 10 close, the week it appeared in Issue No. 12.

Why It Moved

The Story Behind the Move

ASOup 24.1 percent in Week of September 3 to September 10, 2026

Catalyst

Raised full year adjusted earnings guidance on 440 basis points of gross margin expansion while comparable sales fell

Why It Mattered

It grew adjusted earnings 19.1 percent while same store sales went backwards, because it held 440 more basis points of every sales dollar. It was the largest gain in the issue and the only pick the market kept paying for on the second day.

Risk Note

The raise was ten cents at each end, 1.5 percent at the midpoint, against a 24.12 percent move, so this is a re-rating and not a change in the numbers. Roughly three fifths of the increase traces to a net tariff refund worth 0.06 dollars a share that will not repeat. And comparable sales of negative 0.4 percent is a customer buying less, which the company's own chief executive described as a pressured consumer.

Reader Takeaway

A gross margin gain and a sales decline in the same quarter is a company that got better at keeping money, not at earning it. Both matter, and only one of them compounds.

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Put ASO Back in Context

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