Week of August 27 to September 3, 2026 · Issue No. 11: Oil Went Up, Fear Did Not

The Friday Five Scoreboard

Good research is not finished when an issue publishes. This is where the loop closes: every selection stays visible so the original reasoning can be read against what actually happened, including the ideas that did not work.

Issue No. 11 · 55 selections across 11 issues · 45 with a matured forward window.

Read This Week's Issue →

Market Theme

A Cost Shock, Not a Crisis

New strikes against Iran on September 1 sent Brent 8.87 percent higher to a 95.63 dollar settlement, and the market treated it as one industry supply problem rather than a systemic threat. Gold fell 5.04 percent over the same window and the volatility index finished the week below where it started.

Top Weekly Performer

Energy +3.7%

Rose 3.74 percent as new strikes on Iran sent Brent to a 95.63 dollar settlement, the only sector with a clear gain and the only one that fell on Thursday as the rest of the market rallied.

Risk Tone

Elevated, Not Fearful

Geopolitical risk rose materially while the market own price of fear fell, which is an unstable combination rather than a calm one. Market Risk Score 61 of 100.

Largest Issue-Week Move

DE +11.52%

The biggest move inside the window the screen looked at, which closed before this issue published. The screen selected the name because of that move, so nobody earned it.

Highest Friday Five Score

DELL 88 / 100

Not DE. The biggest move and the strongest research setup are usually different companies, which is why both are published.

Overview

Where the record stands

The forward record: what happened to every Friday Five selection after it was published, measured against the S&P 500 over the identical dates. These are the figures that could have gone the other way.

Matured Picks

of 55 published, across 9 issues

Beat Rate

46.7%

21 of 45 matured picks

Average Forward Return

+0.02%

One week from the publication close, equally weighted

S&P 500

+0.66%

The same windows, the same dates

Relative Performance

−0.6 pts

The difference between the two figures beside it

Issues Published

55 selections since inception

See how the forward record is measured →

The other number on this page

85.5% of selections finished positive during the week they were identified. That is the screening record, and it describes the screen: those moves happened BEFORE publication, and the stocks were selected partly for having made them. They are not reader returns. See the Screening Record for what it does and does not show.

Issue No. 11 · September 4, 2026

This Week's Friday Five

This issue's 5 featured companies, ranked by : weekly performance, catalyst quality, sector strength, volume confirmation, and risk-adjusted setup quality. A high score does not mean buy now. It means the stock deserves closer research.

S&P 500 +0.22% Nasdaq +0.16%for the week

S&P 500 +0.22%Nasdaq +0.16%

01DELLup 9.3 percent88 02CFup 9.6 percent84 03GTLBup 10.0 percent82 04BBYup 4.7 percent80 05DEup 11.5 percent76

-14%0+14%

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Issue-Week Move	Sector	Catalyst	Friday Five Score	Actionability
01	DELL	Dell Technologies	up 9.3 percent	Technology	Guidance RaiseRaised full year revenue guidance by 25 billion dollars on a record 95 billion dollar AI server backlog	88	Extended
02	CF	CF Industries Holdings	up 9.6 percent	Materials	Supply ShockNew strikes on Iran tightened a nitrogen market already short 4.0 to 4.5 million tons of traded urea	84	Extended
03	GTLB	GitLab	up 10.0 percent	Technology	Beat and RaiseRevenue five points ahead of its own guidance and the full year profit forecast raised about 9 percent	82	Fresh Breakout
04	BBY	Best Buy	up 4.7 percent	Consumer Discretionary	Guidance RaiseRaised all four full year guidance lines on August 27, was sold for three sessions, then reclaimed	80	Watch Pullback
05	DE	Deere & Company	up 11.5 percent	Industrials	Cycle TurnUpgraded to Outperform on August 31, with China buying 703,000 tons of soybeans and soybeans clearing 13 dollars	76	Extended

Returns are measured from the Thursday, August 27 close to the Thursday, September 3 close. Benchmarks: S&P 500 +0.2% and Nasdaq Composite +0.2% for the week. Benchmark figures are official index closes; sector figures use SPDR sector ETF closes because the official S&P sector index closes for this window were not yet published at press time.

What the labels mean

None of these labels is a buy or sell instruction. They describe the shape of the move, so you know how much caution the setup deserves before you research it.

Fresh Breakoutjust cleared a meaningful price level with volume behind it. The move is young.

Extendedalready far above its recent base after a long run. The risk of a pullback is elevated.

News Spikethe move came from a single headline. It can fade as quickly as it arrived.

Watch Pullbackworth researching, but a calmer entry may come if the price cools off.

Avoid for Nowthe setup, the risk, or the story does not justify research time this week.

The Primary Record

Performance After Publication

What happened after each Friday Five issue was published, measured from the publication close forward against the S&P 500 over the identical dates. This is separate from the issue-week move used to identify each stock, which is reported further down as the Screening Record. There is no model portfolio behind these figures: they weight every pick equally and ignore costs and taxes.

of 55 published

Picks with enough elapsed trading time to complete the one-week forward window, across 9 issues. The rest are shown as Not tracked rather than estimated.

Average Pick Return

up 0.0 percent

45 matured picks

First week after publication. 60% finished that week positive (27 of 45 picks).

up 0.7 percent

45 matched windows

The same measurement windows, averaged the same way. Not one index return across one long calendar period.

−0.6 pts

vs. S&P 500

Average pick return minus average S&P 500 return over matching periods. Percentage points, not percent: subtracting one rate from another does not give a rate.

46.7%

21 of 45 matured picks

Share of matured picks that outperformed the S&P 500 over the same forward window.

How to read this

Forward returns are historical observations over 9 issues and 45 matured windows. That is far too short a history to judge a process by, and it does not predict future performance. It is published because it is the measurement that could embarrass us, and right now it does.

Issue by issue

An average across 45 picks can be one bad week wearing a mask. This is how you check whether the aggregate is a pattern or an artefact.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Issue	Matured Picks	Average Pick Return	S&P 500	Excess Return	Beat Rate
Issue No. 01	5	down 5.5 percent	up 2.2 percent	−7.7 pts	0 of 5
Issue No. 02	5	down 0.4 percent	up 1.4 percent	−1.8 pts	1 of 5
Issue No. 03	5	down 1.7 percent	down 1.5 percent	−0.1 pts	2 of 5
Issue No. 04	5	down 1.9 percent	down 0.6 percent	−1.4 pts	2 of 5
Issue No. 05	5	up 0.7 percent	up 1.1 percent	−0.4 pts	2 of 5
Issue No. 06	5	up 2.8 percent	up 3.5 percent	−0.7 pts	3 of 5
Issue No. 07	5	up 2.5 percent	up 0.6 percent	+1.9 pts	4 of 5
Issue No. 08	5	up 2.7 percent	down 1.4 percent	+4.1 pts	4 of 5
Issue No. 09	5	up 0.9 percent	up 0.7 percent	+0.2 pts	3 of 5

Additional performance statistics

Averages are distorted by outliers in both directions, so the distribution is published beside them.

Median Pick Return

up 0.6 percent

45 matured picks

The middle observation. Where it sits relative to the average tells you which tail is doing the work.

Median Excess Return

−0.6 pts

45 matched windows

The middle pick against its own benchmark window, rather than the difference of two averages.

Best and Worst

up 9.6 percent / down 16.5 percent

HALO and SNDK

The full range of one-week outcomes after publication. Both stay on the board.

Every pick, tracked

Two different numbers, kept apart on purpose. The is what a stock did during the window it was screened from, which ends before the issue publishes: names are chosen partly FOR having moved, so a strong figure there is the screen describing itself. Everything to the right of it starts at the publication close.

A window that has not finished yet says Not tracked. It is never filled in with an estimate, and never with the issue-week figure wearing a different label.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Ticker	Issue	Issue-Week Move	After Publication, 1 week	After Publication, 1 month	Vs. S&P 500, 1 week
CLF	Issue No. 10	up 10.2 percent	Not tracked	Not tracked	Not tracked
CRM	Issue No. 10	up 22.7 percent	Not tracked	Not tracked	Not tracked
DG	Issue No. 10	up 4.4 percent	Not tracked	Not tracked	Not tracked
OKTA	Issue No. 10	up 28.9 percent	Not tracked	Not tracked	Not tracked
VEEV	Issue No. 10	up 12.6 percent	Not tracked	Not tracked	Not tracked
EL	Issue No. 09	up 10.1 percent	up 4.2 percent	Not tracked	+3.5 pts
MRNA	Issue No. 09	up 109.5 percent	down 1.6 percent	Not tracked	−2.3 pts
MRVL	Issue No. 09	up 13.0 percent	up 1.9 percent	Not tracked	+1.2 pts
STLD	Issue No. 09	down 15.9 percent	up 3.1 percent	Not tracked	+2.4 pts
TNK	Issue No. 09	up 9.1 percent	down 3.1 percent	Not tracked	−3.8 pts
APO	Issue No. 08	up 12.2 percent	down 5.7 percent	Not tracked	−4.4 pts
HALO	Issue No. 08	up 17.4 percent	up 9.6 percent	Not tracked	+11.0 pts
MP	Issue No. 08	up 17.2 percent	up 2.2 percent	Not tracked	+3.6 pts
MPC	Issue No. 08	up 19.1 percent	up 1.5 percent	Not tracked	+2.9 pts
TEAM	Issue No. 08	up 50.7 percent	up 5.9 percent	Not tracked	+7.3 pts
ARES	Issue No. 07	up 11.3 percent	up 9.2 percent	Not tracked	+8.6 pts
CACI	Issue No. 07	up 31.7 percent	up 4.0 percent	Not tracked	+3.4 pts
CRL	Issue No. 07	up 13.2 percent	up 5.2 percent	Not tracked	+4.5 pts
ELF	Issue No. 07	up 12.2 percent	down 6.5 percent	Not tracked	−7.1 pts
ZBRA	Issue No. 07	up 26.2 percent	up 0.8 percent	Not tracked	+0.2 pts
GEHC	Issue No. 06	up 12.8 percent	up 5.5 percent	up 5.5 percent	+2.0 pts
KO	Issue No. 06	up 9.0 percent	down 0.6 percent	up 2.4 percent	−4.1 pts
META	Issue No. 06	down 11.1 percent	up 6.4 percent	up 3.8 percent	+2.9 pts
MSFT	Issue No. 06	up 18.2 percent	up 7.6 percent	up 10.5 percent	+4.1 pts
VLO	Issue No. 06	up 2.1 percent	down 4.7 percent	up 12.6 percent	−8.2 pts
CLF	Issue No. 05	up 15.0 percent	down 3.4 percent	down 5.5 percent	−4.5 pts
EQT	Issue No. 05	up 8.1 percent	up 0.5 percent	up 1.3 percent	−0.6 pts
GM	Issue No. 05	up 3.8 percent	up 7.5 percent	up 6.4 percent	+6.4 pts
ISRG	Issue No. 05	down 17.5 percent	up 4.7 percent	up 12.2 percent	+3.6 pts
SMCI	Issue No. 05	up 26.4 percent	down 5.7 percent	up 23.7 percent	−6.8 pts
AEHR	Issue No. 04	up 10.5 percent	down 5.8 percent	up 65.4 percent	−5.3 pts
BLK	Issue No. 04	up 6.6 percent	down 1.5 percent	up 9.5 percent	−0.9 pts
IBM	Issue No. 04	down 25.8 percent	up 0.7 percent	up 10.2 percent	+1.3 pts
PNR	Issue No. 04	down 11.9 percent	up 0.7 percent	up 5.9 percent	+1.3 pts
VOD	Issue No. 04	up 19.4 percent	down 3.8 percent	up 4.3 percent	−3.2 pts
CRNX	Issue No. 03	up 98.0 percent	up 0.3 percent	up 0.6 percent	+1.9 pts
FANG	Issue No. 03	up 5.8 percent	up 6.6 percent	up 2.5 percent	+8.2 pts
KR	Issue No. 03	up 2.8 percent	down 2.8 percent	down 6.3 percent	−1.3 pts
LASR	Issue No. 03	up 18.1 percent	down 3.9 percent	down 22.1 percent	−2.4 pts
LITE	Issue No. 03	up 7.9 percent	down 8.6 percent	up 11.0 percent	−7.1 pts
JPM	Issue No. 02	up 1.2 percent	up 0.6 percent	up 5.2 percent	−0.8 pts
KMI	Issue No. 02	down 3.4 percent	up 0.2 percent	up 0.4 percent	−1.2 pts
LMT	Issue No. 02	up 7.6 percent	down 4.2 percent	up 6.8 percent	−5.5 pts
NUE	Issue No. 02	down 7.9 percent	up 3.0 percent	up 16.6 percent	+1.6 pts
RTX	Issue No. 02	up 6.0 percent	down 1.7 percent	up 8.0 percent	−3.0 pts
APGE	Issue No. 01	up 46.8 percent	up 0.3 percent	up 1.3 percent	−1.9 pts
JPM	Issue No. 01	up 3.0 percent	up 1.6 percent	up 7.3 percent	−0.5 pts
MS	Issue No. 01	down 0.9 percent	up 0.9 percent	up 1.2 percent	−1.3 pts
MU	Issue No. 01	up 7.0 percent	down 13.8 percent	down 18.7 percent	−16.0 pts
SNDK	Issue No. 01	up 6.9 percent	down 16.5 percent	down 31.3 percent	−18.7 pts

Returns are from split-adjusted closes, excluding dividends, measured from the publication reference close forward. The benchmark is measured over the identical window on the identical basis. Definitions: Performance Methodology.

Every Selection

Search the Record

All 55 published selections across 11 issues. Filter by issue, sector or actionability, sort by any figure, and open a row for the catalyst, the thesis and what would have broken it. Picks whose forward window has not elapsed read Not trackedrather than being estimated, and losers are here on the same terms as winners.

Search the record

Issue

Sector

Actionability

Forward window

Versus S&P 500

Sort by

Showing 55 of 55 published picks, sorted newest issue first.

BBYBest BuyIssue No. 11 · September 4, 2026 · Consumer Discretionary

FF Score: 80
Issue-week move: up 4.7 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Watch PullbackGuidance Raise

CFCF Industries HoldingsIssue No. 11 · September 4, 2026 · Materials

FF Score: 84
Issue-week move: up 9.6 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

ExtendedSupply Shock

DEDeere & CompanyIssue No. 11 · September 4, 2026 · Industrials

FF Score: 76
Issue-week move: up 11.5 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

ExtendedCycle Turn

DELLDell TechnologiesIssue No. 11 · September 4, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: 88
Issue-week move: up 9.3 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

ExtendedGuidance Raise

GTLBGitLabIssue No. 11 · September 4, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: 82
Issue-week move: up 10.0 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Fresh BreakoutBeat and Raise

CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.Issue No. 10 · 2026-08-28 · Materials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 10.2 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Capacity Investment

CRMSalesforce, Inc.Issue No. 10 · 2026-08-28 · Technology

FF Score: 85
Issue-week move: up 22.7 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Fresh BreakoutGuidance Raise

DGDollar General CorporationIssue No. 10 · August 28, 2026 · Consumer Staples

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 4.4 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Guidance Raise

OKTAOkta, Inc.Issue No. 10 · August 28, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 28.9 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

Guidance Raise

VEEVVeeva Systems Inc.Issue No. 10 · 2026-08-28 · Health Care

FF Score: 84
Issue-week move: up 12.6 percent
1-week forward: Not tracked
S&P 500: Not tracked
Relative: Not tracked

ExtendedGuidance Raise

ELThe Estee Lauder Companies Inc.Issue No. 09 · August 21, 2026 · Consumer Staples

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 10.1 percent
1-week forward: up 4.2 percent
S&P 500: up 0.7 percent
Relative: +3.5 pts

Beat and RaiseBeat the S&P 500

MRNAModerna, Inc.Issue No. 09 · August 21, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: 79
Issue-week move: up 109.5 percent
1-week forward: down 1.6 percent
S&P 500: up 0.7 percent
Relative: −2.3 pts

News SpikeTrial ReadoutTrailed the S&P 500

MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.Issue No. 09 · August 21, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 13.0 percent
1-week forward: up 1.9 percent
S&P 500: up 0.7 percent
Relative: +1.2 pts

Contract WinBeat the S&P 500

STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Issue No. 09 · August 21, 2026 · Materials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 15.9 percent
1-week forward: up 3.1 percent
S&P 500: up 0.7 percent
Relative: +2.4 pts

Policy ShockBeat the S&P 500

TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.Issue No. 09 · August 21, 2026 · Energy

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 9.1 percent
1-week forward: down 3.1 percent
S&P 500: up 0.7 percent
Relative: −3.8 pts

Supply ShockTrailed the S&P 500

APOApollo Global Management, Inc.Issue No. 08 · August 14, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 12.2 percent
1-week forward: down 5.7 percent
S&P 500: down 1.4 percent
Relative: −4.4 pts

Structural DemandTrailed the S&P 500

HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.Issue No. 08 · August 14, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 17.4 percent
1-week forward: up 9.6 percent
S&P 500: down 1.4 percent
Relative: +11.0 pts

Guidance RaiseBeat the S&P 500

MPMP Materials Corp.Issue No. 08 · August 14, 2026 · Materials

FF Score: 81
Issue-week move: up 17.2 percent
1-week forward: up 2.2 percent
S&P 500: down 1.4 percent
Relative: +3.6 pts

ExtendedVolume InflectionBeat the S&P 500

MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationIssue No. 08 · August 14, 2026 · Energy

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 19.1 percent
1-week forward: up 1.5 percent
S&P 500: down 1.4 percent
Relative: +2.9 pts

Supply ShockBeat the S&P 500

TEAMAtlassian CorporationIssue No. 08 · August 14, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: 86
Issue-week move: up 50.7 percent
1-week forward: up 5.9 percent
S&P 500: down 1.4 percent
Relative: +7.3 pts

Fresh BreakoutEarnings BeatBeat the S&P 500

ARESAres ManagementIssue No. 07 · August 7, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 11.3 percent
1-week forward: up 9.2 percent
S&P 500: up 0.6 percent
Relative: +8.6 pts

Record FundraisingBeat the S&P 500

CACICACI InternationalIssue No. 07 · August 7, 2026 · Industrials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 31.7 percent
1-week forward: up 4.0 percent
S&P 500: up 0.6 percent
Relative: +3.4 pts

Guidance RaiseBeat the S&P 500

CRLCharles River LaboratoriesIssue No. 07 · August 7, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 13.2 percent
1-week forward: up 5.2 percent
S&P 500: up 0.6 percent
Relative: +4.5 pts

Guidance RaiseBeat the S&P 500

ELFe.l.f. BeautyIssue No. 07 · August 7, 2026 · Consumer Staples

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 12.2 percent
1-week forward: down 6.5 percent
S&P 500: up 0.6 percent
Relative: −7.1 pts

Guidance RaiseTrailed the S&P 500

ZBRAZebra TechnologiesIssue No. 07 · August 7, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 26.2 percent
1-week forward: up 0.8 percent
S&P 500: up 0.6 percent
Relative: +0.2 pts

Guidance RaiseBeat the S&P 500

GEHCGE HealthCareIssue No. 06 · July 31, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 12.8 percent
1-week forward: up 5.5 percent
S&P 500: up 3.5 percent
Relative: +2.0 pts

Order AccelerationBeat the S&P 500

KOCoca-ColaIssue No. 06 · July 31, 2026 · Consumer Staples

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 9.0 percent
1-week forward: down 0.6 percent
S&P 500: up 3.5 percent
Relative: −4.1 pts

Beat and RaiseTrailed the S&P 500

METAMeta PlatformsIssue No. 06 · July 31, 2026 · Communication Services

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 11.1 percent
1-week forward: up 6.4 percent
S&P 500: up 3.5 percent
Relative: +2.9 pts

Capex BacklashBeat the S&P 500

MSFTMicrosoftIssue No. 06 · 2026-07-31 · Technology

FF Score: 91
Issue-week move: up 18.2 percent
1-week forward: up 7.6 percent
S&P 500: up 3.5 percent
Relative: +4.1 pts

ExtendedCloud ReaccelerationBeat the S&P 500

VLOValero EnergyIssue No. 06 · 2026-07-31 · Energy

FF Score: 78
Issue-week move: up 2.1 percent
1-week forward: down 4.7 percent
S&P 500: up 3.5 percent
Relative: −8.2 pts

Watch PullbackRecord EarningsTrailed the S&P 500

CLFCleveland-CliffsIssue No. 05 · July 24, 2026 · Materials

FF Score: 72
Issue-week move: up 15.0 percent
1-week forward: down 3.4 percent
S&P 500: up 1.1 percent
Relative: −4.5 pts

ExtendedEarnings InflectionTrailed the S&P 500

EQTEQT CorporationIssue No. 05 · July 24, 2026 · Energy

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 8.1 percent
1-week forward: up 0.5 percent
S&P 500: up 1.1 percent
Relative: −0.6 pts

Guidance RaiseTrailed the S&P 500

GMGeneral MotorsIssue No. 05 · July 24, 2026 · Consumer Discretionary

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 3.8 percent
1-week forward: up 7.5 percent
S&P 500: up 1.1 percent
Relative: +6.4 pts

Beat and RaiseBeat the S&P 500

ISRGIntuitive SurgicalIssue No. 05 · July 24, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 17.5 percent
1-week forward: up 4.7 percent
S&P 500: up 1.1 percent
Relative: +3.6 pts

Guidance DisappointmentBeat the S&P 500

SMCISuper Micro ComputerIssue No. 05 · July 24, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 26.4 percent
1-week forward: down 5.7 percent
S&P 500: up 1.1 percent
Relative: −6.8 pts

Preliminary UpdateTrailed the S&P 500

AEHRAehr Test SystemsIssue No. 04 · July 17, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 10.5 percent
1-week forward: down 5.8 percent
S&P 500: down 0.6 percent
Relative: −5.3 pts

Guidance RaiseTrailed the S&P 500

BLKBlackRockIssue No. 04 · July 17, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 6.6 percent
1-week forward: down 1.5 percent
S&P 500: down 0.6 percent
Relative: −0.9 pts

Earnings BeatTrailed the S&P 500

IBMIBMIssue No. 04 · July 17, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 25.8 percent
1-week forward: up 0.7 percent
S&P 500: down 0.6 percent
Relative: +1.3 pts

Profit WarningBeat the S&P 500

PNRPentairIssue No. 04 · July 17, 2026 · Industrials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 11.9 percent
1-week forward: up 0.7 percent
S&P 500: down 0.6 percent
Relative: +1.3 pts

Guidance CutBeat the S&P 500

VODVodafone GroupIssue No. 04 · July 17, 2026 · Communication Services

FF Score: 74
Issue-week move: up 19.4 percent
1-week forward: down 3.8 percent
S&P 500: down 0.6 percent
Relative: −3.2 pts

News SpikeOwnership ChangeTrailed the S&P 500

CRNXCrinetics PharmaceuticalsIssue No. 03 · July 10, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: 83
Issue-week move: up 98.0 percent
1-week forward: up 0.3 percent
S&P 500: down 1.5 percent
Relative: +1.9 pts

News SpikeAcquisitionBuyoutBeat the S&P 500

FANGDiamondback EnergyIssue No. 03 · July 10, 2026 · Energy

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 5.8 percent
1-week forward: up 6.6 percent
S&P 500: down 1.5 percent
Relative: +8.2 pts

Macro CatalystBeat the S&P 500

KRKrogerIssue No. 03 · July 10, 2026 · Consumer Staples

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 2.8 percent
1-week forward: down 2.8 percent
S&P 500: down 1.5 percent
Relative: −1.3 pts

AcquisitionTrailed the S&P 500

LASRnLIGHTIssue No. 03 · July 10, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 18.1 percent
1-week forward: down 3.9 percent
S&P 500: down 1.5 percent
Relative: −2.4 pts

Contract WinTrailed the S&P 500

LITELumentumIssue No. 03 · July 10, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 7.9 percent
1-week forward: down 8.6 percent
S&P 500: down 1.5 percent
Relative: −7.1 pts

Sector MomentumTrailed the S&P 500

JPMJPMorgan ChaseIssue No. 02 · July 3, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: 82
Issue-week move: up 1.2 percent
1-week forward: up 0.6 percent
S&P 500: up 1.4 percent
Relative: −0.8 pts

Watch PullbackCapital ReturnsTrailed the S&P 500

KMIKinder MorganIssue No. 02 · July 3, 2026 · Energy

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 3.4 percent
1-week forward: up 0.2 percent
S&P 500: up 1.4 percent
Relative: −1.2 pts

Structural DemandTrailed the S&P 500

LMTLockheed MartinIssue No. 02 · July 3, 2026 · Industrials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: up 7.6 percent
1-week forward: down 4.2 percent
S&P 500: up 1.4 percent
Relative: −5.5 pts

Contract WinTrailed the S&P 500

NUENucorIssue No. 02 · July 3, 2026 · Materials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 7.9 percent
1-week forward: up 3.0 percent
S&P 500: up 1.4 percent
Relative: +1.6 pts

Guidance RaiseBeat the S&P 500

RTXRTX CorporationIssue No. 02 · July 3, 2026 · Industrials

FF Score: 90
Issue-week move: up 6.0 percent
1-week forward: down 1.7 percent
S&P 500: up 1.4 percent
Relative: −3.0 pts

Fresh BreakoutGuidance RaiseTrailed the S&P 500

APGEApogee TherapeuticsIssue No. 01 · June 26, 2026 · Health Care

FF Score: 84
Issue-week move: up 46.8 percent
1-week forward: up 0.3 percent
S&P 500: up 2.2 percent
Relative: −1.9 pts

News SpikeAcquisitionBuyoutTrailed the S&P 500

JPMJPMorgan ChaseIssue No. 01 · June 26, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: 82
Issue-week move: up 3.0 percent
1-week forward: up 1.6 percent
S&P 500: up 2.2 percent
Relative: −0.5 pts

Watch PullbackCapital ReturnsTrailed the S&P 500

MSMorgan StanleyIssue No. 01 · June 26, 2026 · Financials

FF Score: Not scored
Issue-week move: down 0.9 percent
1-week forward: up 0.9 percent
S&P 500: up 2.2 percent
Relative: −1.3 pts

Capital ReturnsTrailed the S&P 500

MUMicron TechnologyIssue No. 01 · June 26, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: 76
Issue-week move: up 7.0 percent
1-week forward: down 13.8 percent
S&P 500: up 2.2 percent
Relative: −16.0 pts

Watch PullbackEarnings MomentumTrailed the S&P 500

SNDKSanDiskIssue No. 01 · June 26, 2026 · Technology

FF Score: 80
Issue-week move: up 6.9 percent
1-week forward: down 16.5 percent
S&P 500: up 2.2 percent
Relative: −18.7 pts

ExtendedEarnings MomentumTrailed the S&P 500

Sector Rotation Board

Where the Money Went

All eleven S&P 500 sectors, ranked by this week's performance. Rotation, not headlines, tells you where institutions are actually putting money to work.

S&P 500 +0.22% Nasdaq +0.16%for the week

Leading Improving Neutral Slipping Lagging

S&P 500 +0.22%Nasdaq +0.16%

Energyup 3.7 percent

Comm. Servicesup 1.8 percent

Financialsup 1.2 percent

Health Careup 1.0 percent

Cons. Discretionaryup 0.5 percent

Cons. Staplesup 0.2 percent

Utilitiesdown 0.3 percent

Real Estatedown 0.9 percent

Materialsdown 1.1 percent

Technologydown 1.4 percent

Industrialsdown 2.4 percent

-5%0+5%

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Sector	Weekly Move	Trend	Notes
Energy	up 3.7 percent	Leading	Rose 3.74 percent as new strikes on Iran sent Brent to a 95.63 dollar settlement, the only sector with a clear gain and the only one that fell on Thursday as the rest of the market rallied.
Communication Services	up 1.8 percent	Improving	Rose 1.77 percent, the second best, carried by Meta up 6.93 percent and a broad bid for businesses whose costs are engineers rather than fuel.
Financials	up 1.2 percent	Improving	Rose 1.17 percent as the ten year Treasury yield climbed from 4.67 percent to 4.76 percent, with Wells Fargo up 4.97 percent and Citigroup up 4.12 percent.
Health Care	up 1.0 percent	Improving	Rose 0.98 percent on a defensive bid through the two risk off sessions, with managed care and distribution names leading and no single company catalyst behind it.
Consumer Discretionary	up 0.5 percent	Neutral	Rose 0.50 percent, which flatters it: Tesla contributed most of the gain while the retail complex was mixed and Lululemon guided its full year revenue well below expectations after Thursday close.
Consumer Staples	up 0.2 percent	Neutral	Rose 0.21 percent, held up by the agricultural processors Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland on the same grain move that lifted Deere.
Utilities	down 0.3 percent	Slipping	Fell 0.35 percent, and the headline number hides the week most violent single move: California passed a wildfire bill without a liability cap on August 31, and Edison International fell 23 percent in its worst session in more than 25 years.
Real Estate	down 0.9 percent	Slipping	Fell 0.92 percent as the ten year yield rose nine basis points on the week, having been up thirteen at its peak.
Materials	down 1.1 percent	Slipping	Fell 1.15 percent as an index despite the nitrogen complex running hard, because most of the sector buys energy rather than sells it. CF Industries rose 9.63 percent inside a losing sector.
Technology	down 1.4 percent	Slipping	Fell 1.40 percent and software fell 3.05 percent, giving back most of the previous week guidance driven pop, even as Dell and GitLab rose on raised forecasts of their own.
Industrials	down 2.4 percent	Lagging	Fell 2.37 percent, the worst of the eleven, which is what an 8.87 percent move in crude does to a sector full of companies that buy fuel and freight. Deere rose 11.52 percent inside it.

What Trend means

Trend is not this week's return. The Weekly Move column is the week's price move; Trend is our read on where capital is rotating over recent weeks and where leadership looks headed from here. The two can disagree, and often should: a sector can post a strong week on one name's earnings and still be Neutral, or fall on the week and still be Leading because money keeps moving toward it. Trend is a judgment, not a calculation, and it is the part of this table most likely to be wrong.

Leadingmoney is moving in and the group is setting the market’s direction.

Improvingflows have turned positive but the group is not leading yet.

Neutralno clear rotation either way, whatever the week’s number looked like.

Slippingmoney is starting to leave, even if the group has not broken down.

Laggingflows are against the group and it is trailing the market.

Why It Moved

The Story Behind Each Move

A number tells you what happened. These cards tell you why it happened, what could break the thesis, and what to do with the information.

DELLup 9.3 percent issue week

Catalyst

On September 1, 2026 Dell reported second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of 47.0 billion dollars, up 58 percent, and non-GAAP earnings of 7.04 dollars a share, up 203 percent, with a record 60.9 billion dollars of AI server orders and a record 95 billion dollar backlog. It raised full year revenue guidance to 192.0 billion dollars from 167.0 billion and non-GAAP earnings to 25.50 dollars from 17.90. The stock rose 15.81 percent on September 2.

Why It Mattered

It is the largest guidance raise in the screen and it happened in a week when the technology sector fell 1.40 percent and software fell 3.05 percent, so none of the move is sector drift. At 20.3 times the company own raised earnings forecast, the price is not demanding for a business that just added 25 billion dollars to its revenue outlook in one quarter.

Risk Note

AI servers carry thinner margins than the rest of what Dell sells, so a mix that keeps shifting toward them can deliver the revenue and leave profit standing still. The stock closed at 97.3 percent of its 52 week high, and insiders filed five notices of proposed sale inside the measurement week after the move.

Reader Takeaway

A backlog is an order book, not a contract that cannot move. When a company raises a forecast this hard, the question that matters next is what margin the new revenue arrives at, not how large the number is.

CFup 9.6 percent issue week

Catalyst

The United States completed a wave of strikes against Iran on September 1, 2026 and Iran retaliated across five countries, tightening a nitrogen market already constrained by the Strait of Hormuz. CF stated in its August 5 second quarter release that the conflict has removed approximately 4.0 to 4.5 million metric tons of urea and about 1 million metric tons of ammonia from Middle East supply, a region that normally accounts for 25 to 30 percent of globally traded ammonia and 35 to 40 percent of globally traded urea. CF rose 3.37 percent on August 31, 4.28 percent on September 1 and 2.71 percent on September 2.

Why It Mattered

It is the second order version of the trade everyone else made this week. Fertilizer is made from natural gas, so a war that disrupts gas disrupts fertilizer, and the whole nitrogen complex moved together rather than CF alone, with Nutrien up 10.5 percent. CF also carries a correlation of negative 0.26 to the S&P 500 over three months, so it is not doing the same thing as the index.

Risk Note

This is a commodity price, not a company. CF published nothing this week and it rose on 1.20 times normal volume, the thinnest confirmation of the five picks. A single de-escalation headline took 6.6 percent out of crude in a week in early August, and the same headline would take the nitrogen bid with it.

Reader Takeaway

When a shock hits an obvious industry, look one step down the supply chain for the version of the trade that is not crowded. The cost of what a thing is made from moves before the thing itself does.

DEup 11.5 percent issue week

Catalyst

Baird upgraded Deere to Outperform on August 31, 2026, citing North American row crop demand. China bought a further 136,000 tons of United States soybeans ahead of the September 1 open, taking three business days of buying to 703,000 tons, and November 2026 soybeans traded above 13 dollars for the first time. Deere own August 20 release carried the statement that the company continues to believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the current agricultural equipment cycle. The stock rose 3.90 percent, 3.23 percent and 3.30 percent on the three sessions that followed.

Why It Mattered

It rose 11.52 percent in a week when industrials fell 2.37 percent, and the whole agricultural complex moved with it rather than Deere alone. Farm cash flow is the input to equipment demand, and this is the first week in a long time when the grain side moved in the farmer favour rather than against.

Risk Note

The proximate trigger was a broker upgrade, which is the weakest catalyst type this newsletter tracks. At 694.41 dollars against full year net income guidance of 4.75 to 5.00 billion on 270.7 million diluted shares, the stock trades at 38.6 times the midpoint of earnings the company itself calls a trough, and it closed at 98.4 percent of its 52 week high.

Reader Takeaway

Paying a high multiple on trough earnings is a bet on the recovery arriving on schedule. It is a coherent bet, but it is a bet on timing rather than on the business, and timing is the thing cycles are worst at.

GTLBup 10.0 percent issue week

Catalyst

On September 1, 2026 GitLab reported second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of 286.3 million dollars, up 21 percent and roughly five points ahead of its own guidance, with a 15 percent non-GAAP operating margin, a 117 percent dollar based net retention rate and 1,571 customers above 100,000 dollars of annual recurring revenue, up 17 percent. It raised full year revenue guidance to 1,129 to 1,133 million dollars from 1,112 to 1,118 million and full year non-GAAP operating income to 148 to 152 million dollars from 135 to 141 million. The stock rose 9.98 percent on September 2.

Why It Mattered

It rose 10.04 percent in a week when the software group fell 3.05 percent, which is where the information usually is. The raise is verified against the company own prior published guidance rather than against a consensus estimate, so the improvement is measured against what management itself said three months ago.

Risk Note

The revenue guide went up about 1.4 percent and the stock went up 10.04 percent, so what re-rated is the margin trajectory rather than this year sales, and a margin trajectory is a promise about future quarters. It is also the thinnest name of the five by trading volume, and no company event is scheduled before the December report.

Reader Takeaway

When a company raises its profit forecast far more than its revenue forecast, the market is repricing efficiency rather than demand. That can be the better story, but it needs the next two quarters to confirm it.

BBYup 4.7 percent issue week

Catalyst

On August 27, 2026 Best Buy reported second quarter fiscal 2027 comparable sales up 4.1 percent against a full year outlook that had been negative 1.0 to positive 1.0 percent, revenue of 9.779 billion dollars and adjusted earnings of 1.47 dollars a share, up 15 percent. It raised all four full year guidance lines, taking comparable sales to 1.9 to 3.0 percent and adjusted earnings to 6.70 to 6.90 dollars from 6.30 to 6.60. The stock fell 4.44 percent that day, then 1.34 percent and 2.78 percent, before rising 3.09 percent on September 1 and 5.29 percent on September 2.

Why It Mattered

It is the same setup as Walmart in Issue No. 09, a company raising every line and being sold for it, except this time the market changed its mind two sessions later. Watching a market reverse its own verdict on the same kind of news is worth more than another name that only went up. At 12.9 times its own raised earnings forecast it is also the cheapest arithmetic among the five.

Risk Note

Part of the reported quarter came from a tariff refund rather than from selling more, and the same policy can reverse. The forward guide of 1.9 to 3.0 percent comparable sales is a recovery from a decline rather than an expansion, and the September 4 employment report and September 11 inflation print both land inside the next week.

Reader Takeaway

A market that sells a genuine raise is not always right, and it is not always wrong either. What made this one worth following was that the reversal came within three sessions, on no new information at all.

Backward Looking

Screening Record

The Friday Five identifies stocks after they have already moved during the issue week. These statistics describe the screening environment. They are not reader returns, portfolio returns, or evidence of skill, and beating the index inside the selection window is the selection rule restating itself rather than a forecast that came true.

Average Issue-Week Move

up 13.2 percent

55 picks across 11 issues

The S&P 500 averaged +0.31% over those same weeks. This is the window each pick was screened from, so read it as a description of the screen.

Average Issue-Week Move, Excluding

up 10.9 percent

53 picks, 2 removed

The same average with the 2 takeover targets (APGE, CRNX) removed. That gap is the honest measure of how much of the record is unrepeatable.

Issue-Week Win Rate

85.5%

47 of 55 picks

Picks that finished their issue week positive. 85.5%beat the S&P 500 that week, which again is what the screen selects for.

Picks Published

11 issues, five per issue

All of them, winners and losers, nothing filtered. Every one is listed on this page.

An average of one-week returns across 11 different issue weeks is not a compounded return and it is not what an investor would have earned. It weights every pick equally, ignores costs and taxes, and covers a history far too short to judge a process by. Read it as a description of what was published.

The Record

Every Pick Since Inception

55 picks across 11 issues, month by month. Monthly returns measure the calendar month rather than the week the pick ran, so a name can be green on its issue week and red for the month.

August 202620 featured picks4 issues+29.57% average monthly return+2.62%S&P 500View 20 picksHide 20 picks

Top five stocks covered by The Friday Five in August, ranked by full month price return (July 31 close to August 31 close).

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Catalyst	Friday Five Score	Actionability
01	MRNA	Moderna	up 156.0 percent	Health Care	Trial ReadoutLate stage trial readout that repriced the whole pipeline	79	News Spike
02	TEAM	Atlassian Corporation	up 92.2 percent	Technology	Earnings BeatFourth quarter beat with cloud revenue growth reaccelerating	86	Fresh Breakout
03	VEEV	Veeva Systems	up 40.2 percent	Health Care	Guidance RaiseRaised full year subscription revenue and operating margin guidance	84	Extended
04	CRM	Salesforce	up 40.0 percent	Technology	Guidance RaiseBacklog growth accelerated to 14 percent and full year revenue guidance was raised	85	Fresh Breakout
05	MP	MP Materials	up 32.3 percent	Materials	Volume InflectionRefined output stepped up as rare earth supply policy tightened	81	Extended

The Friday Five Score and Actionability label on this table are the ones each stock was published with in its issue week. Neither is recalculated over a month, so read them as a note on the week the pick ran, not a grade on the month.

Every August pick

All 20 companies covered in August 2026, ranked by full month return. The S&P 500 returned +2.62% over the same window. Full month returns measured from the Friday, July 31 close to the Monday, August 31 close.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Covered In	Catalyst
01	MRNA	Moderna, Inc.	up 156.0 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 09	Trial Readout
02	TEAM	Atlassian Corporation	up 92.2 percent	Technology	Issue No. 08	Earnings Beat
03	VEEV	Veeva Systems Inc.	up 40.2 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 10	Guidance Raise
04	CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	up 40.0 percent	Technology	Issue No. 10	Guidance Raise
05	MP	MP Materials Corp.	up 32.3 percent	Materials	Issue No. 08	Volume Inflection
06	ELF	e.l.f. Beauty	up 31.6 percent	Consumer Staples	Issue No. 07	Guidance Raise
07	HALO	Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.	up 29.0 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 08	Guidance Raise
08	CACI	CACI International	up 25.2 percent	Industrials	Issue No. 07	Guidance Raise
09	CRL	Charles River Laboratories	up 24.0 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 07	Guidance Raise
10	EL	The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.	up 21.9 percent	Consumer Staples	Issue No. 09	Beat and Raise
11	OKTA	Okta, Inc.	up 21.9 percent	Technology	Issue No. 10	Guidance Raise
12	ZBRA	Zebra Technologies	up 20.3 percent	Technology	Issue No. 07	Guidance Raise
13	MPC	Marathon Petroleum Corporation	up 18.0 percent	Energy	Issue No. 08	Supply Shock
14	TNK	Teekay Tankers Ltd.	up 12.9 percent	Energy	Issue No. 09	Supply Shock
15	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	up 12.8 percent	Technology	Issue No. 09	Contract Win
16	ARES	Ares Management	up 11.8 percent	Financials	Issue No. 07	Record Fundraising
17	APO	Apollo Global Management, Inc.	up 8.8 percent	Financials	Issue No. 08	Structural Demand
18	CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.	up 0.3 percent	Materials	Issue No. 10	Capacity Investment
19	DG	Dollar General Corporation	down 0.2 percent	Consumer Staples	Issue No. 10	Guidance Raise
20	STLD	Steel Dynamics, Inc.	down 7.4 percent	Materials	Issue No. 09	Policy Shock

July 202620 featured picks4 issues+9.35% average monthly return-0.13%S&P 500View 20 picksHide 20 picks

Top five stocks covered by The Friday Five in July, ranked by full month price return (June 30 close to July 31 close).

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Catalyst	Friday Five Score	Actionability
01	CRNX	Crinetics Pharmaceuticals	up 123.2 percent	Health Care	AcquisitionVertex agreed to acquire it for roughly $10 billion at $85 per share in cash	83	News Spike
02	MSFT	Microsoft	up 24.6 percent	Technology	Cloud ReaccelerationAzure growth accelerated to 43% and cloud revenue passed $100 billion for the first time	91	Extended
03	CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	up 22.7 percent	Materials	Earnings InflectionQ2 core profit roughly tripled with a stronger second half outlook	72	Extended
04	VLO	Valero Energy	up 20.1 percent	Energy	Record EarningsRecord quarterly profit as refining margins nearly tripled	78	Watch Pullback
05	VOD	Vodafone Group	up 19.3 percent	Communication Services	Ownership Changee& agreed to sell its 16.2% stake to a Xavier Niel backed vehicle for about $5.95 billion	74	News Spike

Every July pick

All 20 companies covered in July 2026, ranked by full month return. The S&P 500 returned -0.13% over the same window. Full month returns measured from the Tuesday, June 30 close to the Friday, July 31 close.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Covered In	Catalyst
01	CRNX	Crinetics Pharmaceuticals	up 123.2 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 03	AcquisitionBuyout
02	MSFT	Microsoft	up 24.6 percent	Technology	Issue No. 06	Cloud Reacceleration
03	CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	up 22.7 percent	Materials	Issue No. 05	Earnings Inflection
04	VLO	Valero Energy	up 20.1 percent	Energy	Issue No. 06	Record Earnings
05	VOD	Vodafone Group	up 19.3 percent	Communication Services	Issue No. 04	Ownership Change
06	FANG	Diamondback Energy	up 15.5 percent	Energy	Issue No. 03	Macro Catalyst
07	GM	General Motors	up 15.3 percent	Consumer Discretionary	Issue No. 05	Beat and Raise
08	BLK	BlackRock	up 13.4 percent	Financials	Issue No. 04	Earnings Beat
09	KO	Coca-Cola	up 7.8 percent	Consumer Staples	Issue No. 06	Beat and Raise
10	GEHC	GE HealthCare	up 6.3 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 06	Order Acceleration
11	KR	Kroger	up 4.0 percent	Consumer Staples	Issue No. 03	Acquisition
12	EQT	EQT Corporation	up 0.2 percent	Energy	Issue No. 05	Guidance Raise
13	META	Meta Platforms	down 1.2 percent	Communication Services	Issue No. 06	Capex Backlash
14	LASR	nLIGHT	down 1.2 percent	Technology	Issue No. 03	Contract Win
15	SMCI	Super Micro Computer	down 3.2 percent	Technology	Issue No. 05	Preliminary Update
16	ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	down 11.2 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 05	Guidance Disappointment
17	PNR	Pentair	down 14.6 percent	Industrials	Issue No. 04	Guidance Cut
18	AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	down 16.7 percent	Technology	Issue No. 04	Guidance Raise
19	LITE	Lumentum	down 16.8 percent	Technology	Issue No. 03	Sector Momentum
20	IBM	IBM	down 20.5 percent	Technology	Issue No. 04	Profit Warning

June 20269 featured picks2 issues+13.12% average monthly return-1.06%S&P 500View 9 picksHide 9 picks

Top five stocks covered by The Friday Five in June, ranked by full month price return (May 29 close to June 30 close).

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Catalyst	Friday Five Score	Actionability
01	APGE	Apogee Therapeutics	up 61.6 percent	Health Care	AcquisitionTakeout agreement at $135 per share in cash	84	News Spike
02	SNDK	Sandisk	up 34.1 percent	Technology	Earnings MomentumMemory pricing supercycle driven by AI data center demand	80	Extended
03	MU	Micron Technology	up 18.9 percent	Technology	Earnings MomentumRecord results on AI memory demand, then a sharp early July selloff	76	Watch Pullback
04	JPM	JPMorgan Chase	up 9.4 percent	Financials	Capital ReturnsStress test pass, dividend raise, and a new buyback	82	Watch Pullback
05	RTX	RTX Corporation	up 5.6 percent	Industrials	Guidance RaiseDefense production ramp plus a raised full year outlook	90	Fresh Breakout

Every June pick

All 9 companies covered in June 2026, ranked by full month return. The S&P 500 returned -1.06% over the same window. Full month returns measured from the Friday, May 29 close to the Tuesday, June 30 close.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Rank	Ticker	Company	Monthly Return	Sector	Covered In	Catalyst
01	APGE	Apogee Therapeutics	up 61.6 percent	Health Care	Issue No. 01	AcquisitionBuyout
02	SNDK	SanDisk	up 34.1 percent	Technology	Issue No. 01	Earnings Momentum
03	MU	Micron Technology	up 18.9 percent	Technology	Issue No. 01	Earnings Momentum
04	JPM	JPMorgan Chase	up 9.4 percent	Financials	Issue No. 01 and Issue No. 02	Capital Returns
05	RTX	RTX Corporation	up 5.6 percent	Industrials	Issue No. 02	Guidance Raise
06	KMI	Kinder Morgan	up 2.9 percent	Energy	Issue No. 02	Structural Demand
07	MS	Morgan Stanley	up 0.5 percent	Financials	Issue No. 01	Capital Returns
08	LMT	Lockheed Martin	down 4.0 percent	Industrials	Issue No. 02	Contract Win
09	NUE	Nucor	down 10.9 percent	Materials	Issue No. 02	Guidance Raise

How to read this record

Buyoutmarks a pick whose move came from an announced bid for the company itself. That return is a single, unrepeatable event, and ranking purely by price return would otherwise park those names at the top of every table forever. Acquisition events stay in the official record because they were real outcomes for selected securities, flagged, and the Screening Record reports the average with and without them.

A company covered in more than one issue appears once per month with both issues credited. Only companies the issue actually selected appear here: a company named for earnings-calendar, macro, sector or competitor context is never counted as a pick, and never enters any average on this page.

Scoring

How the Friday Five Score Works

The Friday Five Score is a structured research-ranking system used to compare the five featured companies within an issue. It is not a probability of future gains and it is not a buy recommendation. Every candidate is graded across seven categories with fixed point ceilings that sum to 100. Methodology version 1.0.

What the score does not tell you

The Friday Five Score grades the quality of a move that has already happened. It is backward looking by construction: Performance Significance can only be measured after the move, and Catalyst Quality grades an event that has already been announced. A stock scoring 88 means the run it just had was well supported, not that the next one is coming.

A high score is a reason to read further, and often a reason for caution, because the highest scores tend to belong to the stocks that have already moved the most. Nothing on this page forecasts a return.

Category-level grades are assigned during research but only the total is stored with each published pick, so no per-stock breakdown is shown. Reconstructing one from the total would be an estimate presented as a record.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to see every column.

Category	Points	Basis	What it grades
Performance Significance	20 / 100	Calculated	How large and how unusual the issue-week move was, measured against the index, the sector, and the stock’s own volume. Absolute weekly return Return relative to the S&P 500 Return relative to the sector Volume confirmation Whether the move was statistically unusual
Catalyst Quality	20 / 100	Analyst judgment	Whether a dated, verifiable event explains the move, and whether that event is material enough to still matter next quarter. Catalyst confirmation Catalyst materiality Mechanism clarity Timing alignment Durability
Research Confidence	15 / 100	Analyst judgment	How well the underlying facts hold up: source quality, whether independent data providers agree, and whether the fact-check closed clean. Source quality Data agreement across providers Fact-check status Absence of unresolved contradictions Reproducibility
Risk Transparency	15 / 100	Analyst judgment	Not whether the stock is risky, but whether the risks are known, explainable, and disclosed rather than hidden inside the move. Whether risks are known Whether risks can be explained Whether risks are acceptable for publication Whether the move is not dominated by hidden risks
Market Relevance	10 / 100	Analyst judgment	How closely the name connects to the week’s broader market theme. Connection to broader market themes Sector importance Investor relevance Macro or industry significance
Educational Value	10 / 100	Analyst judgment	Whether the story teaches a transferable investing concept. The newsletter is an education product, and the score says so. Reader lesson Financial literacy value Vocabulary opportunity Demonstrates a useful investing concept
Liquidity and Investability	10 / 100	Calculated	Whether an ordinary reader could actually trade the name without the spread eating the idea. Average dollar volume Share volume Market capitalization Price reliability Ease of explaining trading limitations

Categories marked Analyst judgment are graded against banded criteria by a reviewer rather than computed from a formula. Scores published under an earlier methodology version keep that version and are not retroactively regraded.

Methodology

How Every Figure Is Calculated

Measurement window

Each issue states its own window explicitly, measured close to close on trading days rather than as seven calendar days. Market holidays, shortened weeks and halted sessions shift the dates; they never shorten the window silently.

Maturity

A pick becomes matured once the complete forward measurement window has elapsed on valid trading-day price data. Until then the window reads Not tracked. Of 55 published picks, 45 have a matured one-week window.

Benchmark

Each selection is compared with the S&P 500 over the identical measurement dates used for that stock. Aggregate benchmark performance is the average of those matched windows, never a single index return spanning one long calendar period.

Price return, not total return

Every figure on this page is a price return from split-adjusted closes, excluding dividends, on both sides of every comparison. A total return figure is never compared against a price return figure.

Corporate actions

Splits and reverse splits are handled through adjusted closes. Acquisitions are flagged and kept in the record, with a second average published excluding them. Ticker changes and delistings are resolved to the security, not the symbol.

Aggregation

Averages weight every pick equally. They are not compounded, they assume no position sizing, and they ignore costs and taxes. Every rate on this page is printed with the count behind it.

Data corrections

When a published figure turns out to be wrong, the correction is posted here with both values. Historically published numbers are not silently overwritten.

VLO · July 2026 monthly return · corrected August 1, 2026

Previously published+20.61%

Corrected to+20.14%

The published number was a total return that included Valero’s $1.20 July dividend, while every other figure in that table is a price return excluding dividends, which is the basis stated in the Performance Methodology. Mixing the two bases inside one table makes the column non-comparable.

VLO’s rank within the month is unchanged. The monthly leaders table and the full July record were both updated. Affected surface: July 2026 monthly leaders table and full July record. Originally published July 31, 2026. See the Performance Methodology.

This page is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Returns use price return from split-adjusted closing prices, excluding dividends. Past performance does not predict future results. See the full Performance Methodology for how figures are calculated, labeled, and verified.

Read, evaluate, track, learn.

A page like this is worth more as practice than as proof. Reading an issue, forming a view, and then coming back to see how it aged is how the judgment gets better, and it is the reason the losers are still here. The free issue arrives every Friday. We're also considering a future Edge Report with entry zones, invalidation levels and sizing tiers for the same five names, at an expected $25 a month. Nothing is for sale yet.

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